Our first book will be The End of Power by Moisés Naim.
Feel free to discuss it in the comments here, but please keep all conversation relevant to this book.
You can download The End of Power here
ENGLISH (USA): http://amzn.to/1N1bjTl
ENGLISH (UK): http://goo.gl/n9yxXS
SPANISH: http://goo.gl/2s5209
ITALIANO: http://goo.gl/eP9feJ
DEUTSCH: http://goo.gl/UrqDTM
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Whatever our political ideologies, most of us are aware that we've entered one of those periods of accelerated change that mark the transition from one historical era to another. In the last dozen years we've had the War on International Terror, the Great Recession, public and private sector financial collapses, and a change in politics that has shifted the country from ultra-laissez faire economic conservatism toward a slightly left-of-center regime of higher taxes, more regulation, and more federally-supervised healthcare.
These changes may be viewed through many economic and political prisms. This book views it through what is purported to be a change in the power structures that govern politics, business, the military, and even religion. As author Moises Naim posits: "Power is decaying. To put it simply, power no longer buys as much as it did in the past."
My first thought is that this is deja vu back to the late 60's/mid 70's when a plethora of books like MEGATRENDS and FUTURE SHOCK predicted that "The Establishment" would soon be overthrown by an explosion of knowledge, communication, and rising social consciousness among the people, especially the young. The Establishment was alleged to be a cabal of large corporate and academic interests allied with big government for the purpose of suppressing the desires of the "little people" to have a greater share of economic and political influence.
Something along these lines did happen on a limited scale. Grass roots environmentalists did combine to thwart powerful corporate interests and their political allies. Young people, women, and minorities did take over the Democratic Party in 1972 and oust its old guard. In foreign affairs some ragtag guerilla movements, notably the Viet Cong and the Afghan resistance, did force the humiliating withdrawals of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. superpowers
But the trends mostly went the OPPOSITE of what was predicted. The minor political parties faded away so that today we have an even more entrenched major party duopoly. Most of those thousands of new entrepreneurial companies spawned by the revolution in computer information were bought up and consolidated into the existing corporate oligarchies. Today America's industries, banks, and tech companies are more concentrated into "too big to fail" behemoths than ever before.
Nor did the "little guys" do especially well on the international stage. Instead of the world slipping away from dominance by the old US/NATO and USSR/Warsaw Pact Superpower blocs, we now have a world dominated by the U.S. and China. Most of the middling powers that were supposed to rise are actually LESS influential now than they were in the 1970s. The European Union and Japan are seen as has-beens, while the other rising powers like India and Brazil are still decades away from becoming world-class powers.
The author's thesis that the balance of military power has shifted from nation states to irregular forces is also dubious:
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Indeed, when nation-states go to war these days, big military power delivers less than it once did. Wars are not only increasingly asymmetric, pitting large military forces against smaller, nontraditional ones such as insurgents, separatist movements, and militias. They are also increasingly being won by the militarily weaker side.
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And yet it hasn't been an especially bright time for guerilla movements. The big ones like Al Qaeda, Hamas, and the Colombian FARC have been all but exterminated by local governments allied with the U.S. Russia and China have suppressed their home-grown terrorists. The world may be more secure from terrorist attack than at any time since international terrorism first erupted in the mid 1970s.
I also wonder if the author is correct about the passing of power from the major parties to fringe groups:
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In the United States, the rise of the Tea Party movement-- far from unorganized, but also very far from any traditional political organization-- boosted candidates like Christine O'Donnell, who allegedly dabbled in witchcraft
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But in truth the Tea party was effective in only ONE election in 2010. Tea Party backed candidates were obliterated in the electoral route of 2012 when they lost 21 of 23 contested Senate seats. The Tea Party seems to have no more staying power than other short-lived fringe parties like those that backed Ross Perot in 1992 or Ralph Nader in 2000.
I'm also skeptical of the idea that the major financial exchanges will lose their market-making power to upstarts:
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IN SUM, NEW ENTRANTS SUCH AS HEDGE FUNDS, NEW STOCK EXCHANGES, dark pools, and previously unknown start-ups that suddenly upend an entire industry are harbingers of things to come: more volatility, more fragmentation, competition, and more micropowers able to constrain the possibilities of the megaplayers.
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The financial markets will probably continue to be dominated by the established exchanges except that they will become more regulated. I am guessing that hedge funds, which have accomplished little other than making their managers obscenely wealthy while losing their investors' money on crazy speculations, will fade away. As the economy gains traction people will go back to investing in the traditional buy-and-hold way instead of imagining that hedge fund charlatans will make them fortunes with exotic investment derivatives that usually fail.
I also don't believe that big government will be losing its grip on power any time soon. Didn't we just get through imposing government supervision over one-sixth of the economy via the Affordable Care Act? And, if anything, hasn't the economic crash strengthened the G20 governments by making their Federal Reserve Banks the ultimate backstop against global financial calamity?
Thus, I question many of Naim's assumptions. I do think the power of big corporations is going to be reined it, but it will be reined in by government, not by upstart competitors. Competition sure didn't do anything to drive down healthcare costs, so now we have government intervention into the sector. My estimation is that the people will demand that the government extend its umbrella over a private sector that is seen by the public as being too chaotic, volatile, and prone to systemic failure.
I see the world moving opposite to the way Naim predicts: toward the ENHANCED power of government enforcing an umbrella of stability over big corporations. I'm not a fan of ossified big government bureaucracies that tax everybody to death while stifling innovation with mind-numbing red tape and bureaucratic delays. But I do see the private sector being placed in a relatively weaker position after the 2008 financial collapse, and of government retaining the position that it has grown into since then. That means a cozier relationship between the concentrated power centers of big government and big business rather than a lessening of them.
On the International front I would guess that the U.S.A. and China will continue to exercise a superpower duopoly far stronger than the old US/USSR duopoly. Perhaps eventually other emerging powers in South America, Africa, South Asia, and the Arab World will rise to make the "multi-polar" world, but that will probably happen later rather than sooner, if happens at all.
I could certainly be wrong about these conclusions, and that is why this book should be read. Other readers may come to the same conclusions as Naim does. And Naim does recognize that power is a nebulous concept. He seems to be saying (paraphrasing): "in the future the powerful will still be powerful, but less so." Thus, the book should be read as an opinion piece to stimulate the reader to deepen his/her thinking about the direction of change the U.S. and global political and economic systems are moving in as we get back on our feet from the shocks of the early 2000's. The book is very well written and Naim has a talent for making complex concepts of power easy to assimilate. Regardless of your conclusions you'll enjoy reading this book if you have any substantial interest in U.S. and international business and political trends.
Review
“Who is in charge? This book says nobody. The monopolies of coercion that characterised states, the potency of advanced militaries, the media organisations that controlled information, and the religious institutions that defined orthodoxy are all losing control. Readers may disagree; they will be provoked.”
—Financial Times, Best of the Year
“It’s not just that power shifts from one country to another, from one political party to another, from one business model to another, Naim argues; it’s this: “Power is decaying.”
—Gordon M. Goldstein, Washington Post, Notable Non-Fiction Book of the Year
“A remarkable new book by the remarkable Moises Naim, the former editor of Foreign Policy. It was recommended to me by former president Bill Clinton during a brief conversation on the situation in Egypt.”
—Richard Cohen, Washington Post
"In his new book called The End of Power, Moises Naim goes so far as to say that power is actually decaying. I actually find the argument rather persuasive."
—General Martin Dempsey-Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
"I particularly enjoyed The End of Power by Moisés Naim.... It is particularly relevant for big institutions like GE."
—Jeff Immelt, CEO, GE
“[An] altogether mind-blowing and happily convincing treatise about how 'power is becoming more feeble, transient, and constrained.'"
—Nick Gillespie, Barron's
“Moisés Naím’s The End of Power offers a cautionary tale to would-be Lincolns in the modern era. Naím is a courageous writer who seeks to dissect big subjects in new ways. At a time when critics of overreaching governments, big banks, media moguls and concentrated wealth decry the power of the '1%,' Mr. Naím argues that leaders of all types—political, corporate, military, religious, union—face bigger, more complex problems with weaker hands than in the past.”
—Wall Street Journal
“Analytically sophisticated…[a] highly original, inter-disciplinary meditation on the degeneration of international power… The End of Power makes a truly important contribution, persuasively portraying a compelling dynamic of change cutting across multiple game-boards of the global power matrix.”
—Washington Post
“This fascinating book...should provoke a debate about how to govern the world when more and more people are in charge.”
—Foreign Affairs
“Naím produces a fascinating account of the way states, corporations and traditional interest groups are finding it harder to defend their redoubts… (He) makes his case with eloquence.”
—Financial Times
“The End of Power: From Boardrooms to Battlefields and Churches to States, Why Being in Charge Isn't What It Used to Be is a wide-ranging, stimulating romp through the last 20 years or so in search of a universal explanation for the unraveling of the well-ordered, predictable postwar world of the late 20th century.”
—National Catholic Reporter
“A timely and timeless book.”
—Booklist
“Having served as editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy and the executive director of the World Bank, Naím knows better than most what power on a global scale looks like…. [A] timely, insightful, and eloquent message.”
—Publishers Weekly, Starred Review
“Foreign Policy editor-in-chief Naím argues that global institutions of power are losing their ability to command respect. Whether considering institutions of government, military, religion or business, the author believes their power to be in the process of decaying…. A data-packed, intriguing analysis.”
—Kirkus Reviews
“The End of Power will change the way you read the news, the way you think about politics, and the way you look at the world.”
—William Jefferson Clinton
“In my own experience as president of Brazil I observed first hand many of the trends that Naím identifies in this book, but he describes them in a way that is as original as it is delightful to read. All those who have power—or want it—should read this book.”
—Fernando Henrique Cardoso
“Moisés Naím’s extraordinary new book will be of great interest to all those in leadership positions—business executives, politicians, military officers, social activists and even religious leaders. Readers will gain a new understanding of why power has become easier to acquire and harder to exercise. The End of Power will spark intense and important debate worldwide.”
—George Soros
“After you read The End of Power you will see the world through different eyes. Moisés Naím provides a compelling and original perspective on the surprising new ways power is acquired, used, and lost—and how these changes affect our daily lives."
—Arianna Huffington
“Moisés Naím is one of the most trenchant observers of the global scene. In The End of Power, he offers a fascinating new perspective on why the powerful face more challenges than ever. Probing into the shifting nature of power across a broad range of human endeavors, from business to politics to the military, Naím makes eye-opening connections between phenomena not usually linked, and forces us to re-think both how our world has changed and how we need to respond.”
—Francis Fukuyama
—Financial Times, Best of the Year
“It’s not just that power shifts from one country to another, from one political party to another, from one business model to another, Naim argues; it’s this: “Power is decaying.”
—Gordon M. Goldstein, Washington Post, Notable Non-Fiction Book of the Year
“A remarkable new book by the remarkable Moises Naim, the former editor of Foreign Policy. It was recommended to me by former president Bill Clinton during a brief conversation on the situation in Egypt.”
—Richard Cohen, Washington Post
"In his new book called The End of Power, Moises Naim goes so far as to say that power is actually decaying. I actually find the argument rather persuasive."
—General Martin Dempsey-Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
"I particularly enjoyed The End of Power by Moisés Naim.... It is particularly relevant for big institutions like GE."
—Jeff Immelt, CEO, GE
“[An] altogether mind-blowing and happily convincing treatise about how 'power is becoming more feeble, transient, and constrained.'"
—Nick Gillespie, Barron's
“Moisés Naím’s The End of Power offers a cautionary tale to would-be Lincolns in the modern era. Naím is a courageous writer who seeks to dissect big subjects in new ways. At a time when critics of overreaching governments, big banks, media moguls and concentrated wealth decry the power of the '1%,' Mr. Naím argues that leaders of all types—political, corporate, military, religious, union—face bigger, more complex problems with weaker hands than in the past.”
—Wall Street Journal
“Analytically sophisticated…[a] highly original, inter-disciplinary meditation on the degeneration of international power… The End of Power makes a truly important contribution, persuasively portraying a compelling dynamic of change cutting across multiple game-boards of the global power matrix.”
—Washington Post
“This fascinating book...should provoke a debate about how to govern the world when more and more people are in charge.”
—Foreign Affairs
“Naím produces a fascinating account of the way states, corporations and traditional interest groups are finding it harder to defend their redoubts… (He) makes his case with eloquence.”
—Financial Times
“The End of Power: From Boardrooms to Battlefields and Churches to States, Why Being in Charge Isn't What It Used to Be is a wide-ranging, stimulating romp through the last 20 years or so in search of a universal explanation for the unraveling of the well-ordered, predictable postwar world of the late 20th century.”
—National Catholic Reporter
“A timely and timeless book.”
—Booklist
“Having served as editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy and the executive director of the World Bank, Naím knows better than most what power on a global scale looks like…. [A] timely, insightful, and eloquent message.”
—Publishers Weekly, Starred Review
“Foreign Policy editor-in-chief Naím argues that global institutions of power are losing their ability to command respect. Whether considering institutions of government, military, religion or business, the author believes their power to be in the process of decaying…. A data-packed, intriguing analysis.”
—Kirkus Reviews
“The End of Power will change the way you read the news, the way you think about politics, and the way you look at the world.”
—William Jefferson Clinton
“In my own experience as president of Brazil I observed first hand many of the trends that Naím identifies in this book, but he describes them in a way that is as original as it is delightful to read. All those who have power—or want it—should read this book.”
—Fernando Henrique Cardoso
“Moisés Naím’s extraordinary new book will be of great interest to all those in leadership positions—business executives, politicians, military officers, social activists and even religious leaders. Readers will gain a new understanding of why power has become easier to acquire and harder to exercise. The End of Power will spark intense and important debate worldwide.”
—George Soros
“After you read The End of Power you will see the world through different eyes. Moisés Naím provides a compelling and original perspective on the surprising new ways power is acquired, used, and lost—and how these changes affect our daily lives."
—Arianna Huffington
“Moisés Naím is one of the most trenchant observers of the global scene. In The End of Power, he offers a fascinating new perspective on why the powerful face more challenges than ever. Probing into the shifting nature of power across a broad range of human endeavors, from business to politics to the military, Naím makes eye-opening connections between phenomena not usually linked, and forces us to re-think both how our world has changed and how we need to respond.”
—Francis Fukuyama
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